WILL THERE BE A THIRD TERM FOR PRESIDENT JAGDEO?

Aug 15, 2009 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Why would a poll be commissioned to determine how the public feels about a third term for President Jagdeo when the President himself has indicated that he will not be seeking a third term and the constitution itself prohibits the President from seeking a third elected term?
Why would the public be asked about something which is not likely to occur? Could it be that there are forces out there who are interested in ensuring that President Bharrat Jagdeo is re-elected for a third term? Could it be that these forces are now making their move to secure this objective or is it that they are simply testing public opinion to determine just when it is opportune to make this bid?
There is no doubt that there are individuals within the private sector who are keen on a third term for the incumbent President. There are also persons within the international community who are worried about a possible reversal in the economic policies which have been laid down by the President.
Under President Jagdeo, Guyana has adopted a liberalised economy and its future is tied to the donor countries by a number of agreements relating to debt relief and the many things which have to be done to ensure that these benefits keep flowing.
President Jagdeo has administered the most successful structural adjustment programme anywhere in the world. So impressed have been the IMF and World Bank by his compliance with their diktat that they made him a few years ago, the Chairman of their Boards of Directors, an achievement of considerable significance. There is thus a great deal of interest within the international community as to continuity of his policies and therefore of a third term for him.
The Constitution of Guyana makes it quite clear that any President elected after 2000 can only seek re-election once. This means that a President elected after the year 2000 can only have two terms. The only way to circumvent this prohibition is for an amendment to the constitution.
The Constitution allows for it to be amended by an Act of Parliament. However, when it comes to the question of term limits, which is governed by Article 90 of the Constitution, the Constitution can only be amended by two means. The first is by a referendum in which 50% of those voting agree to the amendment being sought or alternatively by a two-thirds majority vote in the National Assembly.
Even those behind a third term bid are interested in placing this matter before the people of Guyana, a procedure which even the PPP respects as the highest form of democratic expression, the mechanism for such a vote cannot be practically achieved in time for the next elections.
Judging from what is taking place, local government elections may not now be possible before the next general elections. There is still considerable work to do in preparing the voters’ list. For one, the house-to-house registration that took place would have excluded a number of persons who may not have had the requisite documents that were being demanded. Those persons would have to be given the opportunity to straighten out their registration, and this is going to call for extended periods of registration. Then there has to be a countrywide distribution of the new identification cards. This is a logistical burden in itself and will take months. All of this will take about two years, which means that local government elections may not be held before the General Elections.
Thus, even if supporters of a third term for the President wanted to hold a referendum to have push through an amendment to the Constitution, it would seem to be practically impossible. Of course, if the government releases the resources for this to be achieved it can still be done. But it is clear that the international community will not be predisposed towards financing such an arrangement.
As such, there is only one recourse available to the supporters of a third term. They will need a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly for this to be achieved. Despite there being persons within the PPP’s leadership that may themselves be eyeing the Presidency, it is more than possible that the leadership of the PPP would support a third term for President Jagdeo and push such a Bill through the National Assembly.
However, they would need the support of some opposition parliamentarians, since a two-thirds majority is required to push this Bill through. Can the PPP obtain sufficient votes to achieve a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly? It is doubtful it can.
In Guyana, however, the unexpected happens and who knows what arrangements are being made behind the scenes, either to ensure that a referendum is held or that the sufficient support is culled from the opposition to achieve the two-thirds majority needed to pass the Bill to allow for an amendment to the Constitution.

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