Incumbent not likely to return to office in India

May 16, 2009 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,
Polling in India is a difficult and complex exercise, compared say with Guyana or Trinidad, and not surprisingly, pollsters generally tend to be wrong in their predictions of the outcome.
I made two trips to India this year to get a snapshot of the electorate for the country’s ongoing general elections. The time spent in the country was hardly enough to survey even a small portion of the voters on how they will vote. So I settled for informal polling and used it, and my understanding of Indian politics, to make an intelligent assessment of a projected outcome.

An assessment should not be a substitute for scientific polling. Thus, one should not dismiss the findings of the four polls conducted before the elections. However, I should note that polls in India have a reputation in being wrong. Politicians do not trust or depend on them. In conversations with spokespersons of several parties, they said they have no faith in the pollsters to guide them to an outcome of the elections. I believe the polls offer a guesstimate of the results and will not completely dismiss them. The findings of the polls do not correspond with my own estimates of the outcome.

Three published polls had the ruling Congress ahead of the opposition BJP by about 20 seats and the Congress-led UPA alliance ahead of the BJP-led NDA partners by about 25 seats. One poll had the election almost a dead heat; that one, to me, is more credible. The bookmakers also have the UPA as heavy favourites. The odds also favour incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over the BJP leader, LK Advani as P.M.

I believe the outcome of the elections will be the opposite of the three polls’ findings. I think Advani has a better chance of being P.M than Manmohan Singh because the left parties which will win about 40 seats and which supported him for four and a half years, will not back Mr Singh as PM.

Opinion polls said the ruling Congress and its alliance, the UPA, will come out ahead of the elections and form the government with the incumbent Manmohan Singh returning as Prime Minister. However, the findings of my informal polling and analysis of the elections do not support the projected outcome of those polls. I do not think Congress and its alliance partners will come out ahead (by much if it does in the elections) and as such Manmohan Singh will not return as PM. His political career is over as I expect him to resign shortly after the elections because voters are likely to reject his party contrary to what the pre-election polls say.

I believe the race for PM is between LK Advani and the Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar who is a major global cricket figure. But his party must win minimum 150 seats, which appears likely. And his NDA alliance should tally about 200 seats, which also appears likely.
If that happens, then he should be able to muster the remaining 75 seats, necessary to have a majority, through other regional and caste-based parties.

However, the Communists said they will do everything to prevent Advani from becoming PM because of his ‘Hinduness’.
If the UPA crosses 200 seats, as the polls say, it will form the government with help from other parties which are adopting a wait and see attitude of who has a better chance to lead a government and will jump on that bandwagon. I think the opposition has a better chance.
Vishnu Bisram

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