The ANC will win the election

Apr 22, 2009 Letters

Dear Editor,
South Africa goers to the polls on Wednesday (22-04-09) to elect a national assembly of 400 members, who in turn will choose a President for a five-year period.
The members of parliament are selected similar to how MPs are chosen in Guyana under a PR system, except South Africa has a ranked preference list.
The outcome of the elections will not be a surprise as I am finding from my readings on the elections and my own analysis of voting trends and interviews with South Africans when I was there last year.
The ANC will win hands down because the opposition parties are themselves in disarray and voters do not have much confidence that they have what it takes to govern the nation.
At any rate, the opposition parties are “ethnically” and or class aligned while the ANC is a multi-national party with support from all groups and classes. Take, for example, the Inkatha Freedom party (IFP), it is a Zulu party whose strength will decline from the last election when it won 7% of the votes.
The ANC’s Presidential candidate is himself a Zulu and is likely to take support from IFP.
The other major tribe is Xhosa (boasting Mandela and Mbeki as members) and they will back ANC as they have done since the first election in 1994.
The White parties are divided and weak to pose a credible challenge. Although the ANC suffered from a breakaway faction, the most support it will get is 6% if that much.
No doubt, the percentage of the ANC’s victory is expected to decline because of division that impact on support. The party’s major problem is turnout.
Turnout in the election is projected to be lower than last time because there is widespread disillusionment with ANC rule and this is where the ANC’s percentage of support will be affected.
What is happening in South Africa bear several similarities to Guyana’s last election. So the outcome of the election may very well be similar to Guyana’s in 2006.
Recall there was widespread disillusionment, factionalism within the parties, and a low voter turnout in Guyana in 2006. In South Africa, the conditions are similar. The ANC is fractured with some members leaving and joining with dissidents from other parties to launch a new party.
The main opposition party has remade and recast itself hoping to attract support from other ethnic groups. Indians have walked away from the ANC because of alleged neglect. The ANC is hoping to attract voters from other ethnic and racial groups. The White parties are hoping to attract support from other groups. Turnout is projected to be low.
The ANC will win the election. If turnout is low across all groups as happened in Guyana in 2006, the ANC could hold on to a large majority.
Vishnu Bisram

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