Rising Seas and Floods

Dec 18, 2008 Editorial

This week, there were several reports in the international press by reputable scientific bodies on the melting of the ice caps and the consequent rise in the level of the seas. All of them confirm that most conservatively, levels will rise between one and two meters in the coming century. Coming in the midst of our rainy season – and the seemingly inevitable flooding of Georgetown and the villages – which has led to the just as inevitable finger pointing, we hope that the stark facts presented will focus the minds of all of us, not just our policy makers, on the need for long-term action since the rising seas and the floods are integrally related.
The latter is a fact that somehow seems to become lost in the strong emotions precipitated whenever we have to literally muddle through the latest inundation of waters into our yards and homes. We cannot improve the statement of the World Bank on the matter: “Drainage during rainfall has been managed through the use of gravity based systems augmented with pumps. This system is under increasing stress and suffering from the impacts of sea level rise because an adequate discharge window is no longer guaranteed.
“The maximum safe operating level of the East Demerara Water Conservancy (EDWC) was about five feet above the peak 1951 sea level, which left a narrow operating window for emergency discharges during times of heavy rain.”
“This maximum safe level has closed to three feet since then. As the sea level continues to rise and the discharge window continues to shrink, the ability to manage water levels is being compromised.
Today’s problems stem from the fact that the coastal drainage and irrigation systems in Guyana were largely constructed some 150 years ago. Sea level rise since then is estimated at one meter (estimated 150 years at 1mm/year). The additional stress on the system raises concern about the possible collapse of the EDWC. If the discharge flow is not amplified, and the system continues to be managed without regard to climate change related rises in sea level, rainfall collection in the system will outpace the ability to release excess water (because the period available to discharge continues to shrink), causing the EDWC to overtop and the levees to breach.
Considering the accumulated and expected impact of sea level rise, the current ad-hoc approach to flood control is no longer viable. It is also clear that any programme to strengthen and upgrade the system will have to take into account the impact of climate change. Given the forecast impacts of sea level rise, the risk of future flooding – even during normal weather events – is increasing year after year. It is critical that the Government and the donor community embark in earnest on a comprehensive programme to strengthen the current system.”
The assessment is taken from the project information document of The World Bank and Global Environmental Facility, which subsequently (2007) approved US$3.8 million in grant funding to protect our coastal areas in Guyana threatened by rising sea levels. It was the first project of its kind to be approved under the Global Environmental Facility’s Special Climate Change Fund because Guyana shows up on every study that looks at countries that would be severely affected by rising sea levels.
The World Bank’s intervention was preceded by a study that it had commissioned itself and published in February 2007 – “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis”. Guyana, of course, is ubiquitous in the report. The paper noted that the loss of ice from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets had recently been shown to be greater than that expected even a few years ago, and stated that “recent research and expert opinion indicate that significant sea level rise may occur earlier than previously thought.”
The recent studies cited above also confirm the accelerated melting of the mentioned ice caps.
The point we wish to make once again, especially as we struggle through another round of humiliation, pestilence and filth, is that in the longer term we are fighting a Canutian battle in deploying all our resources to keep out the sea. It is time that we make contingency plans for occupying the higher ground. Literally.

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