Do not expect too much from Obama

Nov 18, 2008 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Most Guyanese whom I have met, but especially blacks, are ecstatic about the election victory of Barack Obama. I know what his election means to them, as it did to so many Americans.

I can understand their joy. It was the same joy I saw on the tear-filled faces of Oprah Winfrey and Jessie Jackson on the night Barack was elected as the next President of the United States.

I feel happy for all those who are happy about Obama’s win in the just-concluded elections. I, however, urge those who are happy at his nomination to not overestimate the impact of his Presidency.

I recognise there are high expectations. But to expect too much is to demand too much from Barack in his first term.

He faces an unenviable number of problems, each of which is too great to settle in one term. No President in the post-World War era has faced such daunting challenges as Barack Obama.

He is confronted with the worst financial crisis since the global depression of the 1930’s, and he has already signed on to the multi-billion-dollar bailout package that is being put forward by Congress to resolve the problem.

This financial crisis is going to pose a stern test for Obama, and is likely to be his top priority when he assumes the Presidency next year.

It will also be the most important issue on which he will be judged, something that is unfair to Obama, because it will be nigh impossible for him to resolve the effects of this crisis within one year.

Already we are seeing problems developing in the Japanese economy, and this will further erode confidence in global financial markets. Obama’s election may have been historic, but, so, too, are the problems he faces.

The President-elect is also going to be judged by the energy crisis — not so much the food crisis. Obama had, during his campaign, outlined his energy proposals. He may no longer need them.

Already the price of oil on the world market is in a tailspin. On Sunday, prices dipped below US$57 per barrel for Brent Crude.

This after it had soared in the months leading up to the elections to all-time highs of close to US$150 per barrel.

The dramatic dip in oil prices has confirmed what this column has long been arguing: that the price of oil has been subject to the same sort of speculation that has brought down the capital markets. It had little to do with demand and supply.

Obama can put his energy proposals on ice. They will not be needed. Oil prices are falling, and will stabilize at a price that will not require the sort of investments which were being proposed by both of the presidential candidates in the last election.

Another area where Obama will be judged will be the situation in the Middle East. This is where I believe he will be a great disappointment. Obama will be no different than any US President has been towards the State of Israel.

Right now, one expects that he would have said something about the blockade of Gaza, since it is clear that the present actions of the Israelis are intended as a test for Obama.

He has not responded to this test, and is not likely to respond. He will continue to take the safe road rather than the right, but more dangerous options.

Finally, I think Obama will face a huge challenge with respect to bringing home US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. If he is able to convince the military establishment that there should be a quick and smooth withdrawal of US troops, he would have scored a major victory.

It is not likely, though, that he will achieve a quick withdrawal, and this is one issue that will hurt the image of his Presidency. He was elected because many persons wanted a change from the Republican policies. They believed he would be a change.

I am sure he will add a great deal of sparkle to the White House. I am sure he will make fine-sounding speeches. I am sure there will be positive things he will do.

But do not expect too much from Barack Obama. He will disappoint you greatly if you do. There is only so much he can do.

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Do not expect too much from Obama

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