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A polling instrument is not the only method of conducting scientific research

Nov 13, 2008 Letters

Dear Editor,
I wish to refer to the letter titled “Williams has incorrectly criticised Bisram” in your November 12th edition. The letter writer, in his/her attempt to support Mr. Vishnu Bisram’s methodology and predictions throughout the recent United States electoral cycle, made some erroneous claims.

First off, the writer referred to Robin Williams as my “friend.” I have never met or even interacted with Mr. Williams, so how the writer was able to arrive at that conclusion baffles me.

Secondly, he/she wrote with absolute certainty that my predictions of the outcome the Democratic Primaries and the General Election were based on “gut feelings” and that no scientific methodology was employed in correctly projecting the outcome.

The fatal and calamitous flaw in the writer’s reasoning lies in the assumption that the only method for conducting scientific research of a political outcome is through the use of a polling instrument.

“Anyone with a basic university math education would know that” is not true (to use the writer’s own sentence).

There are qualitative research methods, such as, observation, interviews, documents and texts, etc…, that are legitimate social research techniques. I’ve given my justification in the past (and thus, does not need repeating) (see my letter titled, “Things have changed, America is ready for a person of colour as President” SN 13.06.08) as to why I believed that Obama would have been elected president and it had nothing to do with gut feeling, but more with observing the social and cultural context of the changing American society.

Furthermore, I would posit and suspect that Obama and his advisors relied more on qualitative research methods in making the decision to run for president.

Obama knew what the polls were saying and had he relied on them exclusively, he would have never run for the Office that he would soon occupy.

Or is it simply a case where he relied on gut feeling and got lucky?
Finally, Mr. Bisram did not rely exclusively on polls to augment and support his predictions entirely.

When Obama won the first democratic primary and the polls showed Obama leading, Bisram still believed that the eventual outcome would show Hillary Clinton as the candidate for the Democratic Party.

This I cannot blame him for; the polls had shown that Obama was going to win in New Hampshire, however, the outcome proved otherwise.

Examples like New Hampshire and the “Bradley effect” have shown that polls cannot be relied on and a smart individual like Bisram would have known better than to do so.
Clinton Urling

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