I predict a closer presidential race than the polls suggest

Nov 02, 2008 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,
The American Presidential election on Tuesday seems all but over. The polls are predicting a landslide in popular vote as well as in electoral votes for Democrat Barack Obama. It is not impossible for Republican John McCain to stage a late comeback, but it is a tall task.

When McCain was in the lead in mid-September and people said the race was over for Obama, because they did not think sufficient whites would vote for him, I penned an opinion that Obama would bounce back if the economy declines.

The economy has tanked and Obama has bounced back, and he is on the threshold of victory – a result unimaginable six weeks ago.

But McCain does not have similar fortune of a defining issue or moment that can sway massive opinion back in his favour. I think he will close the gap in poll deficits with Obama, but victory seems unlikely.

Only once has a candidate come from such huge deficits to win the Presidency. Reagan came from behind to trump Carter in 1980. But McCain does not have the charisma of a Reagan.

The President is chosen by electoral votes, and the math for McCain is not good. But the fighter he is, McCain is not surrendering. If McCain is to win, he must retain all the states won by Bush in 2004.

But he is trailing in 10 of them, some by huge deficits. None of the traditionally Republican-leaning states should be ruled out for McCain, although it will be difficult for him to hold on to a few of them, such as New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

The demographics are not in McCain’s favour in Virginia and NM. But if he can hold on to two of these and wrest from Obama one big Democratic state, like Pennsylvania, then he can still prevail. But such an outcome is unlikely given the overwhelming lead Obama has in the polls.

However, it is my assessment that the contests in all of these states will be closer than what the polls suggest. If McCain loses Pennsylvania and Virginia, the race is over. If he wins both, he wins the presidency with about 278 EVs. Virginia will be the make-or-break for McCain.

With regards to other traditional Republican states, I do not think Obama will win Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Alaska and Arizona, with polls suggesting them as new toss ups.

If Obama wins one of these states, then it will be a blow-out, not a landslide. Those polls are just not realistic. Polls say Obama is ahead in North Dakota and Indiana. I give McCain the edge in both, because of their recent voting past.

Also, I do not think Obama will win Pennsylvania by 14%, Virginia by 10%, Wisconsin by 14%, Montana by 4%, Indiana by 12%, New Hampshire by 15%, Colorado by 12%, New Mexico by 10%, Nevada by 7%, Ohio by 15%, Missouri by 4%, Florida by 7%, North Carolina by 5%, Iowa by 12%, Michigan by 18%, Minnesota by 13%, etc. All these states are going to be much closer in actual outcomes.

I think Obama will win Michigan comfortably, and Minnesota by a significant margin. I won’t be surprised if McCain holds on to Indiana and North Carolina by a squeaker.

And I won’t be surprised if McCain comes from behind to take Florida, Ohio, and Missouri by a nail-biter. Although the polls write him off in Pennsylvania, I think he has an outside chance.

It will be difficult for McCain to prevail in some of the other states. In terms of electoral votes, polls have Obama garnering between 316 and 386 votes. The former is plausible but the latter is highly improbable. McCain should get a minimum 225 EVs.

In addition to the Presidency, voters will choose Senators and Members of Congress and state government officers. In my assessment of the elections, there will be a lot of split ticket voting – voters casting ballots for different parties for different offices.

I am predicting that many voters will vote for Democratic candidates for Senate and the House, but Republican for the Presidency.

Obama will get less votes than the candidates from his party seeking Senate (or House) seats in several states, including Virginia, New Hampshire, Georgia, Maine, Colorado, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oregon, North Dakota, etc.

However, I think he will get more votes than the Senate candidate in Minnesota. The Democrats will make gains in the Senate and the House, but it will be difficult for the Democrats to win nine seats for a filibuster proof majority of 60.
Vishnu Bisram

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I predict a closer presidential race than the polls suggest

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