Guyanese-American votes may matter

Oct 01, 2008 Letters

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DEAR EDITOR,
Shivanand Bahadur asked for my opinion on his conclusion that, “How Guyanese Americans vote will not affect U.S Presidential outcome” (Kaieteur News. September 23). 

I generally agree with that observation because of the settlement patterns of Guyanese in America and projected voting trends in the various states. 

In the states where Guyanese settle, people vote decisively for one party or the other. Thus, their votes do not make much of a difference to the Presidential outcome.  However, their votes could make a difference in some local races. Although their votes may not make a difference in most races, every vote counts and Guyanese are encouraged to vote regardless of where they settle.It is not certain how many Guyanese voters are in each of the states and whether they will actually vote. In this election, I believe there will be record turnouts of Guyanese because of their enthusiasm that a “Black American” could be elected as President. 

Most Guyanese are settled in New York with a sizeable number also in New Jersey and Florida.  Much smaller numbers are in Connecticut and Pennsylvania. 

There are also sprinklings of Guyanese in Georgia, Minnesota, and some other states.In American elections, there are voting patterns that go back to history. Voting is polarized with some states trending Republican and others Democratic, with a few swinging towards one of the two parties.

 NewYork is heavily Democratic.  Since the Guyanese votes are relatively small, they will not impact on the electoral votes of the state.

Obama is expected to win handily but not by lopsided margin as earlier polls suggested.  A month ago, polls showed Obama beating McCain in NY by about 20%. I went upstate NY and Long Island to test support for the two candidates.

 In early September, I told a teaching colleague (who is a passionate supporter of McCain) I expected a relatively close contest between the two candidates because of my findings. He disagreed with me, saying he expects Obama to win big.

My findings show many voters who cast ballots for Hillary Clinton in the February primary are not voting Obama. A published poll of NY voters a week ago confirmed a closer contest giving Obama a 7% lead. I believe that lead will go up a few percent because of the economic crisis.

In neighbouring Jersey, I do not think the small Guyanese vote will affect the outcome. Obama will also comfortably win the state’s electoral votes. But I expect a closer contest than the 13% victory polls are predicting between Obama and McCain in NJ than in NY. I spoke with voters at random in Jersey in a trip two weeks ago. I found a close race disputing polls showing an average 13% Obama victory a month ago. A poll a week ago showed a more sober lead of 3% for Obama.

  Although it is within the margin of error, I expect Obama to win the state by more than 3% but not 12%.  If the race is as close as last week’s poll suggests, then Guyanese votes can make the difference.

Polls show Pennsylvania is very close, with Obama having a slight lead.  Guyanese voters are very infinitesimal as a percentage of the total number of voters in the state.

 But their vote could help to choose a winner.  Although Democrats won the state the last four elections, I believe McCain has a chance because of disenchanted Hillary voters as I found in my brief trip to the state.
In Connecticut, Obama has a healthy lead and should win comfortably but not by the huge margin of 18% as polls suggest.In Florida, polls suggest McCain with an average 7% lead. I think the race is more competitive and whoever wins will be by a couple of points. Guyanese vote could make a difference.

In Virginia, polls suggest a dead heat.  I don’t think it is so close because the state historically trends Republican. The Guyanese vote is extremely small in the state as it is also in North Carolina where polls suggest a slight Obama lead. North Carolina is a historically Republican state in Presidential voting. I think it will go McCain.

In Georgia, the smallness of the Guyanese vote will not make a difference to the outcome. The Obama campaign feels it has a chance in Georgia.  I do not think so and polls suggest a McCain victory but smaller than the 15% polls suggest.

In Minnesota, earlier polls suggest an Obama lead of about 11%. New polls suggest a lead of 3%.
 This is a Democratic state where McCain has a chance. I think this state will go down to the wire and the small number of Guyanese voters could tilt the balance either way.

In Michigan, early polls suggested an 11% Obama victory. Latest polls suggest a 7% victory.
I think Obama will win with a smaller margin.  The small Guyanese votes will not matter here.In Louisiana and Texas, the Guyanese voters are negligible and these are traditional Republican states with victories of huge margins.

Guyanese are hardly present in most of the other states.In canvassing for candidates in Richmond Hill in recent elections, I discovered that Indo-Guyanese did not vote in high numbers. Recent interviews with them show they may turn up at the polling booths next month. Conversations with Afro-Guyanese suggest they will vote in record numbers not only in NY but elsewhere. Their vote may matter in close races.

Vishnu Bisram

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