Who will win the U.S. presidency?

Sep 12, 2008 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,
Guyanese and other Caribbean people familiar with my polling activities have been asking me, who I think will win the U.S. Presidential elections.

It is too early to predict a winner of the Presidency; it could go either way. I am working on a statistical formula that I think will be able to predict the winner a couple weeks before the election.

As I correctly predicted since early September, the Republican candidate John McCain is now leading Democrat Barack Obama in popular support nationwide, according to the latest mainstream polls that came out this week.

However, this lead is not expected to be sustained till election day on November 4. The numbers will fluctuate before settling down shortly before polling day.

It should be noted that prior to the Democratic convention, the race was a tie between Barack Obama and John McCain. I predicted Obama will rise because of backing from the Clintons and the bounce that comes from a convention.

According to pollsters, Hillary and Bill Clinton helped Obama with their convention speeches and endorsement and Obama’s poll numbers soared to 50% while McCain stuck at 42%.

Then McCain chooses Sarah Palin as his Vice President nominee and his poll numbers climbed as I predicted before the convention.

Although McCain leads in some credible polls, Obama is ahead in some critical battleground states. Obama leads in more states than McCain and he also leads in electoral votes which choose the president.

But I think the polls in some of the states overestimate Obama’s support, giving him the presidency with a majority of EVs. Since June, I made the analysis that the election will be a dead heat in popular support and electoral votes until close to voting day.

It will be another six weeks before a clear winner emerges in EVs. It will be foolish to give either candidate the edge right now. But the polls right now give Obama the edge.

I don’t agree with some of the polls giving Obama victories in states traditionally Republican. Similarly, I don’t agree with those who predict McCain will hold a lead until election day. If McCain maintains a lead, then he will coast to victory.

The Democrats should have run away with this election because of the bad economy and the hatred people have for Republicans, especially for George Bush who is rated as among the most disliked presidents. The Republican brand is discredited; voters are moving away from it.

But the Democrats are now struggling in the polls with one poll having McCain leading by 10%, much of it attributed to V.P Sarah Palin’s likeability and McCain’s maverick standing.

Obama who was leading among women suddenly is trailing. Obama who was leading among independent voters is now trailing McCain among them.

McCain also leads Obama on issues such as a better manager of the economy, on defending the nation, and on overall leadership.

Obama has got to appear tougher and get the Clintons to campaign for him in more appearances. Both Bill and Hillary have agreed to campaign for Obama as of this week. I think Obama will climb in the polls again soon. This race is far from over and is going down to the wire.
Vishnu Bisram

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Who will win the U.S. presidency?

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