Obama could pull it off

Aug 11, 2008 Letters

Dear Editor,
The American Presidential race is heating up, and according to the latest Gallup Poll, the two major candidates — Senators Democratic Barack Obama and Republican John McCain — are in a tie in popular support nationwide.

However, when I look at the polls in each individual state, Obama is way ahead in electoral votes, winning by a landslide. As I penned in June, I expect tight polls all the way to the conventions (Democratic in late August and Republican in early September), and to the general election on November 4.

The American President is chosen by the electoral votes of each state, which is the equivalent of the Congressional representation of each state and the district of Washington – a total of 538. To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.

According to my analysis of the current published polls in the individual states, Obama is projected to win about 340 electoral votes, which will be considered a landslide victory.

However, given the voting history in several states where Obama is now leading in the polls, I expect the polling numbers will change to make the state races competitive. Some of the states where Obama is currently leading are likely to revert to McCain to make it a closer race.

Also, nationally, Obama was leading McCain by an average of 7% from a dozen polls. The Gallup last weekend saw Obama’s lead shrink from 9% to 1%, which is a dead heat. McCain cannot be underrated or discounted. He has come back from behind in several races to win, as he has done for the nomination.

The recent polls found “race” to be a factor in the election. Obama made a blunder by raising race in his campaign speech. Analysts explained that his introduction of race in his speech last week caused him to lose 8% support. Fellow (White) Democrats quickly circled the wagon to defend and explain what Obama meant when he introduced race in his campaign. The damage is not irreversible, but I think Obama has learnt from that mistake and it is unlikely he will touch that subject again.

As I have penned repeatedly, Obama has to ignore his racial background and simply run the way he had during the primary season, or else he will go down to defeat. He is a telegenic, smart guy with the backing of top white Democrats. He does not need to remind people about his name or background.

In looking at another poll conducted days ago among low wage workers (earning less than $27K annually), Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over McCain, but “workers are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system”. A major problem for Obama is he has overwhelming support from African Americans and Hispanics, but barely wins white.

The poll finds one-sixth white workers are uncommitted to either candidate, and a “majority of everyone polled is ambivalent about the impact of the election, saying that no matter who wins, their personal finances are unlikely to change”. Although the poll finds Obama is under performing among fellow white Democrats seeking Congressional office in their constituencies, Obama is still ahead of McCain, a feat which was considered impossible two months ago.

Obama could very well pull off the Presidency, considered impossible earlier this year.

Vishnu Bisram

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