THE CONSTITUENCY THAT WILL DECIDE THE ELECTIONS

Apr 23, 2015 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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A cat and mouse game is being played out between the ruling People’s Progressive Party Civic (PPPC) and the opposition coalition APNU+AFC. Both sides seem to be waiting on each other to make the first move when it comes to releasing their manifestos.
There are many who feel that the manifestos of the parties will be of little relevance to these elections. They contend that other more important issues such as corruption and cronyism should be enough to end the PPPC’s tenure in office.
“Should”, however, does not mean “would”. Corruption was one of the main opposition platforms in the 2011 elections. It did not bring them the success they anticipated.
The gains that the AFC made in 2011 into PPP strongholds in Berbice had nothing to do with public corruption. It had to do with the neglect by the ruling party of its constituents, a situation that it has since sought to correct.
The success of the AFC also had to do with the legwork done by former activists of ROAR who after that party dissolved went across to the AFC. Those activists swung a great many votes the AFC’s way. That is not going to happen again this election because those activists were not rewarded with a single seat in the last parliament. Most have since deserted the AFC.
The extra votes, in fact the impressive but highly suspicious growth in APNU’s support in Region Four- APNU surprisingly increased its tally in that Region by some 16,000 votes- had everything to do with the outrage that the supporters of the PNC felt when they saw a photograph of a mansion owned by a top wig of the PPP.
That mansion galvanized support for APNU from those within the PNCR who had deserted the party in the 2006 elections when it only garnered a disappointing 33 per cent of the polls.
But that mansion is not going to be an issue this time around because APNU’s support peaked during the last elections. This is why they have gambled on an alliance with the AFC. If APNU was of the view that it could increase its tally of votes to 44 per cent as it did in 1992, it would have not coalesced with the AFC but instead would have allowed the AFC to cut further into the PPPC support base thus allowing the PPPC to lose the four or five percentage points needed to fall below APNU’s projected 44 per cent.
In fact, there are some folks who feel that from the point of view of tactics that APNU has blundered. They feel that it would have been easier for APNU to have increased its take to 45 per cent and allow the AFC to decrease the PPPC core base to 42 per cent thus allowing APNU to win the presidency with the AFC holding the balance of power.
But APNU no doubt feels that it peaked in 2011 and therefore it is not likely to surpass the 40-odd percentage that it secured in those polls.
Corruption and mansions are not going to swing votes the opposition’s way in 2015.
The one thing that is likely to swing votes the coalition’s way is what is special interests and niches with the electorate.
In the 2011 polls, APNU dedicated some attention to youths, an important segment of the electorate. That however did not bring them any big swing in terms of overall support. This time, APNU is again differentiating the electorate and targeting youths. The response to two youth rallies held so far by the APNU+ AFC coalition has not been impressive.
The other important segment that APNU is targeting is women. But women have traditionally been in the forefront of the activities of the political parties. Voter turnout amongst women has always been believed to be higher than that for men.
APNU is therefore making a pitch to the converted and committed. It is not a segment that is therefore likely to bring the coalition additional votes this election.
The one segment that APNU+AFC has so far failed to target is the emerging middle class. This class is growing each year. Both APNU and the AFC have however stuck their heads in the sands and refused to concede that there is a growing middle class which is going to be an important constituency in this year’s elections.
They have refused to do so because implicit in doing so is to admit that there has been significant economic progress under the PPP, thus explaining the growth of the middle class.
The upper lower class is now creeping to middle class status.  It is this segment of the electorate that can decide the outcome of the elections, not the youth or women.
This is the educated class. This is the class that is an emerging propertied class. It is a class that is not going to be moved by fear or simply by the call for change. This is the class that will only be moved by policies and this where the manifestos of the parties come in.
The longer APNU+AFC delay in releasing its manifesto, the less time they will have to lure this segment which is so critical to the outcome of the elections.

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