THE PRESIDENT HAS DONE APNU A FAVOUR

Nov 14, 2014 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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APNU and the AFC are preparing for major political protests in Guyana. They have no choice; because this is the only way they can deflect from their own failure to predict that the President would have nixed their no-confidence motion through prorogation.
Street protests are now unavoidable. The opposition parties have boxed themselves into a corner.
APNU should however, allow the AFC to lead the planned street protests so that the AFC can demonstrate that it has support in Guyana and is capable of launching mass protests.
For too long, the AFC had piggybacked on APNU when it comes to protest action. The AFC should be allowed to show that it is capable to organizing a mass protest against the proroguing of parliament.
The AFC should take the lead because it is the one who brought this state of affairs onto the country. If it had not wildly gone forward with its no-confidence motion then the need for prorogation would never have arisen.
It skillfully put APNU on the spot by moving forward with its one-line no-confidence motion. APNU could not have been seen as not supporting a no-confidence motion that would remove the PPP, even though it was never in APNU’s interest to move towards an election so early.
APNU will not admit it, but it is not certain that it could have won a plurality at any election that would have resulted from the AFC’s no-confidence motion. This is why APNU pushed so hard for local government elections. It preferred that to general elections.
If APNU goes to the polls in general elections and the status quo remains the same in terms of the political configuration in the country, it is APNU, not the AFC, who will suffer the greatest fallout. APNU therefore always had more to lose with this no-confidence motion.
Therefore, since the AFC had more to gain, the AFC should be asked to take the lead in the planned protests. It should be asked to put more numbers into the protests.
The PPP has done APNU a favour by proroguing parliament. If the PPP did not prorogue parliament, APNU would have had to face the electorate within three months. It is not a prospect that they would have relished. They would have wanted more time before they jumped into an election. While the prorogation does not buy them much additional time, at least it does not rush them into a February election for which they nor the country would have been ready.
There has only been one poll conducted on how Guyanese feel about the no-confidence motion. This poll, done by Vishnu Bisram, found that just over half of the population were not supportive of the no-confidence motion which would have triggered elections within three months.
APNU has to act in its best interest and it is right now not seemingly in APNU’s interest to go to an election. Can APNU really gain more than 50% of the total votes cast in any elections called soon without the AFC joining the partnership? This is doubtful, even if the AFC joins APNU in a coalition to contest the election. The PPP is imploding, but it has not yet imploded to the extent that would allow any of the opposition parties or a coalition of opposition parties to command a majority if elections were to be called by February.
APNU should therefore be breathing a sigh of relief that it does not have to immediately put its election machinery in order. The PPP has gifted it a reprieve from an early election. But that election may well come within six months.  Is APNU going to be ready then?
There is a fallacy that APNU is financially unprepared for elections soon. Money is not going to be a problem for APNU. It will find the resources to undertake its election campaign. The problem is whether it can gain a plurality with or without the AFC on board. This is the challenge and this is why local government would have been a useful referendum on APNU’s support. The AFC however, wanted to nix local government polls, because it knew it could not win an NDC or a municipality if it contested. As such it opted to move the no-confidence motion to force general elections, where it feels that it has a better chance.
APNU has to be ready whenever elections are called. However, it has to be careful about peaking too soon. It also has to be careful that it does not exhaust its supporters in protest action and then find that these supporters do not have the energy to go on the election trail whenever elections are called. APNU therefore would be better advised to conserve its energies for the bigger battle – general and regional elections.
It should participate in the protests against the proroguing of parliament. It has no other choice.  But it should ask the AFC to take the lead in these protests since the problem of the prorogation of parliament is of the AFC’s making.

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