That The PPP Has Misread The Mood Of The Population Is Speculative

Sep 30, 2014 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Allegations of corruption have always bedeviled the PPP, as they did the PNC when the latter was in power for twenty-eight years. But these allegations have never seriously fractured the support base of the PPP or for that matter the PNC.
It is therefore not a plausible theory that the emergence of a kleptocracy under the PPP administration is likely to witness an erosion of support within its electoral base. This erosion did not happen after the Stone Scam, the Gold Scam or the Sea Defense Scam. It did not happen after the conservancy broke away after hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on it.
It did not happen after the failures of the Skeldon Sugar Factor and the controversies over the Berbice River Bridge, the Marriott Hotel or the fifty or more bogus duty free letters that were signed in a certain Ministry. It will not happen because of the termination of the contract for the Specialty Hospital.
The corruption, in other words, is not a critical determinant as to how the supporters of the ruling party vote. It is however an important component as to whether these supporters will stay away from the polls. Corruption also galvanizes support for the opposition parties. A great many supporters of the PPP stayed away from the polls because of their perceptions of corruption under the Jagdeo regime. And when supporters of the opposition parties saw the size of a certain palace constructed by a big one in the government, this angered them and they turned out in their numbers to vote against the government. But it was not this turnout that allowed the opposition their one seat majority.
The factor most influencing how people vote in Guyana is ethnic insecurity. And this insecurity remains. Both of the main political parties know how to massage the insecurities of their constituents. As such, it will continue to strongly influence the voting patterns in Guyana.
This fact has led to the emphasis on voter turnout. Both of the main political parties have stressed the importance of all their supporters turning out to vote. However, voter turnout, while important, is an overrated factor in the overall outcome of Guyana’s elections.
This is better understood by an example. Assuming there are 300,000 eligible voters and assuming also that voting is strictly along ethnic lines. It would mean that based on the last published census which put East Indians at 44 per cent and Africans at 33 per cent of the population, the PPP should have a constituency of 132,000 and the PNCR a constituency of 99,000.
If the voter turnout of the PNCR supporters is 70 per cent and those of the PPP a mere 60 per cent, the PNC would end up with a total of 69,300 votes and the PPP with 79,200. The PPP therefore would still win with a plurality even though the turnout of PNC voters is 10 per cent more than the PPP. Even if the PPP turnout dipped to 55 per cent, the PPP would still enjoy a greater number of votes than the PNCR.
Both the PPP and the PNC have seen the number of votes cast in their favour decline over the years. In fact, over the course of three elections, the total number of votes earned by the PPP has declined by 40,000. The PNCR, now in a partnership with APNU, has also suffered massive losses in terms of the total number of votes cast.
This has led to the conclusion that there has been a change in the demographics of the country. In other words, what is being said is that the losses the PPP suffered, particularly in Region Six is due to a decline in the number of East Indians. There is however no empirical evidence to assess just how the overall decline in the population of Region Six is apportioned.
But there are two issues to consider here. The first is that this decline may be due to rural-urban migration. This would mean that the reduction in population gain in Region Six would have been some other Regions’ gain. The second issue is that there is no evidence that the overall reduction in the population of Region Six has been restricted only to the East Indian communities.
There has equally also been a reduction in the population of Georgetown, a predominant stronghold of the PNCR but the same argument is not being made.
The idea therefore that the PPP has misread the mood of the population by not appreciating changes in the country’s demography is at best speculative. The PPP of course has the results of the latest census and when this is made public, only then we would be in a better position to judge how much the demographics may have shifted against the PPP.

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That The PPP Has Misread The Mood Of The Population Is Speculative

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