THE MYTH OF THE MAJORITY

Jul 01, 2014 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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The AFC has not just fallen victim to its own propaganda. It has also been seduced by the propaganda of APNU, to wit, that the PPPC is not anxious to hold local government elections for fear of losing those elections.
The AFC lacked political foresight. It did not anticipate what the PPPC had in store. The PPPC has launched a multimillion-dollar clean up of the city. It is also spending hundreds of millions of dollars on community roads. The PPPC was carefully and craftily timing the date for local government elections so that it can reap the benefits of this spending.
And while the PPPC had lulled APNU, the AFC, the US Embassy and the Stabroek News into believing that it was not keen on holding local government elections this year, it was all along carefully utilizing the advantages that come with incumbency, and specifically the right to determine when local government elections were going to be held.
The AFC has now awoken to the reality that the PPPC is readying itself for local government elections. And it has found itself in a quandary. The AFC holds the balance of power between APNU and the PPPC in the National Assembly. And so it has projected itself as a major political force in the country.
It has fallen victim to the myth of the majority. The AFC ran a smart campaign in the 2011 elections. The seats that it obtained were as a result of it concentrating in certain regions where it was able to steal vital votes and seats from the ruling party. Its support however, in the largest Region in the country. Region Four, actually declined from 2006.
The fact is that the AFC is not a significant political force. In order to win a municipality or a neighbourhood democratic council in the forthcoming local government elections, you need to be a significant electoral force since there is a 60/40 division of seats using plurality and proportional representation respectively under the new local government laws.
What this means is that the AFC stands very little chance of winning anything in local government elections. It will not win a majority of seats in any municipality or in any NDC if and when those elections are held. The system of apportioning seats would not allow them to do so. Neither are they likely to hold the balance of power in any NDC or municipality.
The AFC has now awakened to the reality the PPPC is going ahead with local government elections. And it knows that it is the AFC, rather than the PPPC, which is going to be humiliated when local government elections are held.
The AFC balloon is about to pop. The myth of the majority, the myth of the AFC being a significant political force is going to be destroyed when local government elections are held.
The AFC cannot afford to contest local government elections because it will burst their bubble and expose the party’s self- delusion.  The AFC therefore, wants to stop the PPPC from holding local government election. The only way to do this is to pass a motion of no- confidence in the government. Such a move will force general and regional elections where the system is more heavily influenced by proportional representation and where the AFC has a better chance of retaining the seats it obtained at the last elections.
The AFC however, does not want to face local government polls. In order to avoid this, it is pushing for a no-confidence motion.  To gain traction and support for this no-confidence motion, they are attempting to woo the support of APNU.
And like on most issues, AFC will inveigle APNU to support its no-confidence motion against the PPPC. APNU, with a congress looming, will want an issue to rally its supporters around. And what better issue to do so than a looming national elections triggered by a no- confidence vote. What better way also to preserve the status quo within APNU- no one wants a divided party in the run up to elections- that to have congress with an election on the horizon. The delegates will not rock the boat.
The question however, is whether APNU is ready for general and regional elections. The AFC is not going to join with them in any pre-election alliance. The AFC has always spurned such an offer. But they now want APNU to support the no-confidence motion so they, the AFC, can avoid their goose being cooked at local government elections.
There is a very good chance that APNU will fall for the bait once again and support the AFC’s no-confidence motion. They should however test the AFC motives.
Since the no- confidence motion will force general elections APNU should ask the AFC to commit to a pre election alliance with APNU. Want to bet the AFC will decline this proposal if it is made?

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