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Wikileaks reveal…73,000 immigrant visas between 1992 and 2004
The number of self-identified East Indians declined by over 25,000 from 1991 to 2002, showing that they continued to emigrate in large numbers even after the PPP came to power in 1992, according to recently released embassy cables from Wikileaks.
It was underscored that entrepreneurs see little incentive to invest in businesses other than natural resource extraction. And continued population decline will only exacerbate this fact. 
Noting that Guyana is rich in natural resources (minerals, timber, and wildlife) and capable in agriculture, but poor in other economic sectors such as services and manufacturing; the whistleblower website stated that the Government of Guyana (GoG) released the results of Guyana’s 2002 Population and Housing Census in October 2005 which confirmed two demographic trends that will profoundly shape the country’s political and economic development: (a) total population is stagnant and predicted to fall; and (b) the ethnic composition is changing, with potentially interesting consequences on Guyana’s race-driven political environment.
The cable stated that Guyana’s total population as of September 2002 was 751,223. This represents a 3.8 percent increase compared to the 1991 census total of 723,673, but a net decrease of 1.1 percent compared to 1980 population of 759,567.
However, in a 2003 survey of 1,700 Guyanese high school students, 59 percent said they think they will leave Guyana permanently within 10 years.
According to the cable, the local US Consular Section issued more than 73,000 immigrant visas between 1992 and 2004, meaning that an average 0.8 percent of the population obtained an immigrant visa to the U.S. each year during that period. Even more migrate legally to Canada, UK, Caribbean, and even Africa (Botswana has been snapping up Guyanese teachers for more than a decade).
Many others migrate illegally and are not caught in the statistics. Definitive numbers are elusive, but estimates of the total number of Guyana-born persons living abroad range from 500,000 to 1 million — a massive diaspora, relative to Guyana’s resident population.
Recognizing the prediction for Guyana is dire, The Wiki Leaks cable stated that the UN projected Guyana’s population will be 488,000 in 2050 — a 35 percent reduction from today’s level.
“If the UN prediction is correct, by 2040 Guyana’s population will be shrinking faster than anywhere else on the planet. Long-term projections of this nature are highly sensitive to modeling assumptions. But even a milder version of this forecast would put crippling strain on Guyana’s capacity to sustain itself as a viable state,” the leaked information stated.
The report warns of “increased need for health, pension and national insurance provisions for the elderly, or policies governing/encouraging return migration.” the report added that Guyana is ill-equipped to provide these social services under current circumstances, let alone when demand for them increases. It was noted that East Indian population fell by 42,478 between 1980 and 1991 when the PNC was still in office. While still Guyana’s largest ethnic group at 43.4 percent of the total population, East Indians have significantly declined from 1991 when they comprised 48.6 percent. The Amerindian population increased by almost half from 1991 to 2002, and they now make up over nine percent of the total population. Guyana’s Amerindians are far less likely to migrate and their fertility rates are higher than other Guyanese.
The census results and UN report point to a grim picture of Guyana’s future — a downward spiral of shrinking population in a weakening state.
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